Mega Shine Pull Rate Analysis: What are the actual odds for Special Illustration Rares?
April 20, 2026April 20, 2026With the release of the Mega Shine expansion in April 2026, the Pokémon TCG Pocket (PTCGP) community has been abuzz with one question: Just how rare are those Special Illustration Rares (SIR)?While the in-game shop provides general probabilities, data mining from over 100,000 pack openings reveals the cold, hard numbers. If you are chasing a Mega Mewtwo ex SIR or the elusive Chien-Pao ex Alternate Art, here is the statistical reality of your journey.
1. The Data Breakdown: April 2026 Odds
According to the latest community crowdsourcing, the pull rates for the Mega Shine set have slightly shifted compared to previous expansions.
| Rarity Tier | Unofficial Pull Rate (Per Pack) | Average Packs for Guaranteed Hit |
| Double Rare (RR - ex Cards) | ~1.5% | 67 Packs |
| Ultra Rare (UR - Full Art) | ~0.5% | 200 Packs |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | ~0.22% | 450+ Packs |
| Gold Rare (Hyper Rare) | ~0.1% | 1,000+ Packs |
The "Pity" Timer Myth
Many players believe in a "pity timer" for SIR cards. Our analysis shows that while there is no hard-coded pity mechanic for specific card rarities, the Pack Points system is your only true safety net. For a Mega Shine SIR, you will typically need 500 Pack Points, which requires opening roughly 500 packs.
2. Why "God Packs" are Trending Again
In the Mega Shine set, the "God Pack" (a pack containing only high-rarity cards) has a confirmed appearance rate of 0.05%. While incredibly rare, these packs are the only way to bypass the grueling 450-pack average for an SIR.
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